Trade Polymarket markets based on valuation divergence. When your probability model differs from Polymarket's price by >threshold, enter using Kelly sizing....
Security Analysis
medium confidenceThe skill's code, instructions, and requested environment variables are consistent with a Polymarket trading bot that uses the Simmer SDK; nothing in the bundle indicates intentional misdirection or hidden exfiltration, though there are a few operational notes and minor inconsistencies you should review before enabling live trading.
Name/description claim to trade Polymarket using a probability model; code uses a SimmerClient (simmer_sdk) and requires SIMMER_API_KEY to fetch markets, portfolio, and place trades. The requested credential is appropriate for the stated trading purpose.
SKILL.md and the code confine actions to scanning markets, computing edges, sizing with Kelly, and executing trades. The skill exposes hooks to call arbitrary external forecast APIs (via fetch_json) and an option (--no-safeguards) that disables internal checks. Those extension points are intentional for model customization but expand the agent's ability to fetch external data and change trading behavior; review edits to get_model_probability and avoid enabling --no-safeguards for live runs unless you understand risks.
There is no automated install spec included (no package/install step). SKILL.md metadata references pip dependency 'simmer-sdk' but the registry metadata didn't include an install step — you must ensure simmer-sdk is installed in the runtime environment. No network downloads or obscure URLs are present in the bundle itself.
Only SIMMER_API_KEY is declared as required; the code uses it to instantiate a trading client, which is proportionate for a trading skill. Some optional env vars (SIMMER_VALUATION_*, TRADING_VENUE) are used but not listed in the top-level registry requires block — this is operationally acceptable but worth noting.
always:false and user-invocable:true (standard). The agent is allowed to invoke the skill autonomously by default (disable-model-invocation:false), which is platform normal — but because this skill can place real trades, granting autonomous invocation increases blast radius. Prefer manual invocation or strict ACLs for live trading keys.
Guidance
This skill appears to do what it says: it uses the Simmer SDK and your SIMMER_API_KEY to scan markets and place Kelly-sized trades. Before using it live: 1) Install and inspect the simmer-sdk dependency and run the script in dry-run mode to confirm behavior. 2) Treat SIMMER_API_KEY like a trading credential — verify its permissions (prefer read-only or restricted keys for testing). 3) Do not enable --no-safeguards unless you understand consequences. 4) If you customize get_model_probability to call external APIs, review the calls so the skill doesn’t leak sensitive data to unknown endpoints. 5) Consider disabling autonomous invocation or restricting the agent from running live trades until you’ve tested thoroughly.
Latest Release
v1.0.0
Initial release of Polymarket Valuation Divergence Trader. - Automates Polymarket trading based on divergence between user/model probabilities and market prices. - Supports any probability model (Simmer AI, user-defined, external APIs). - Executes trades when edge exceeds configurable threshold, using Kelly sizing with risk caps. - Handles market scanning, position sizing, and trade execution with safety checks. - Includes command-line controls for dry runs, live trading, configuration, and monitoring current positions. - Highly customizable—template structure allows integration of custom models or forecasting logic.
More by @adlai88
Published by @adlai88 on ClawHub
